Carlos Esteban Budde

Via Sommarive, 9 - 38123 Povo
carlosesteban.budde[at]unitn [dot] it

National University of Córdoba. Córdoba, Argentina.

Faculty of Mathematics, Astronomy, Physics and Computer Science (FAMAF)

PhD in Computer Science (2012–2017) 

  • Thesis: Automation of Importance Splitting Techniques for Rare Event Simulation.
  • Area: Rare event simulation with multilevel splitting.
  • Supervisors: Prof. Pedro D'Argenio (UNC, Argentina); Prof. Holger Hermanns (UdS, Germany).

MSc in Computer Science (2010–2012)

  • Final project: Fully measurable non-determinism in continuous probabilistic processes.
  • Area: Stochastic and concurrent process semantics.
  • Grade point average: 9,74 / 10.

BSc: Computer Analyst (2007–2010)

  • Grade point average: 9,67 / 10.


Academic career and teaching activities


University of Twente, The Netherlands


Teaching Assistanships

Supervision MSc final projects

Supervision BSc final projects

  • Z. Krol (2021): A new approach to visualizing FMEA data
  • M. Klotz (2020): Extending the shunting plan generator of the Dutch Railways with non-service train traffic
  • J. Karsten (2020): Crunching Attack Trees: Efficient Algorithms for Computation of Metrics
  • E. Constantinescu (2020): An in-depth approach to fitting probability distributions using Evolutionary Algorithms
  • C. Plentinger (2020): GUI for FIG: Visualising simulation results
  • V. Sudhakar (2019): Implementing topological value iteration for Markov decision processes in the Modest Toolset
  • PJ. Roelofs (2018): Determining Long Run Properties of Complex Models using Statistical Model Checking
  • J. A. de Bie (2018): PTA as an approach to fault tree analysis
  • T. Braams (2018): Modelling Degradation of Physical Objects in Fault Maintenance Trees

Universidad Nacional de Córdoba, Argentina

Teaching Assistanships

  • Parallel computing 2016
  • Operating systems 2009 & 2010 & 2011
  • Networks and distributed systems 2011
  • Introduction to algorithms 2010
  • Algorithms and data structures II 2009

Supervision MSc final projects

Professional development

Management courses

  • Supervising Students (10 h) 2019
    • Drs. Marleen de Haan, University of Twente, The Netherlands.
  • Time Management (9 h) 2019
    • Yvon van Leeuwen, Radboud Universiteit, The Netherlands.

Post-graduate courses

  • Modelling and Analysis of Probabilistic Timed Systems (12.5 h) 2015
    • Prof. Joost-Pieter Katoen, RWTH Aachen University, Germany.
  • Introduction to Probabilistic Model Checking (12.5 h) 2015
    • Prof. Christel Baier, Technische Universität Dresden, Germany.
  • Aceleración con GPUs: arquitectura y programación CUDA. (12.5 h) 2014
    • Prof. Manuel Ujaldón, Universidad de Málaga, España.
  • Artificial Intelligence (64 h) 2013
    • Prof. J. Hoffmann, Universität des Saarlandes, Germany.
  • Optimization (68 h) 2013
    • Prof. A. Karrenbauer & Dr. M. Mnich, Max-Planck-Institut für Informatik, Germany.
  • Introducción a la Computación Heterogénea (12.5 h) 2013
    • Dr. Nicolás Wolovick and Lic. Carlos Bederián, FAMAF, Argentina.
  • Quantitative Security Analysis. (12.5 h) 2013
    • Dr. Boris Köpf, IMDEA Software Institute, España.
  • Time series (60 h) 2012
    • Prof. O.H. Bustos, FAMAF, Argentina.
  • Cryptography (60 h) 2011
    • Prof. D. Penazzi, FAMAF, Argentina.
  • Primera Escuela Argentina de GPGPU Computing para Aplicaciones Científicas. (35 h) 2011
    • Dr. Nicolás Wolovick, FAMAF, Argentina.
Research interests

I evaluate properties formally on mathematical models using Monte Carlo simulation. My goal is to design a theory of automated algorithms for rare event simulation. I take good care to implement my ideas and test their performance in reality, on case studies as diverse as possible and largely focusing on high reliability systems e.g. described as Fault Trees.

My techniques have demonstrated good performance for general stochastic models—i.e. any distribution you like—taking the same input as probabilistic model checking. I intend to extend the automated application of importance splitting to rare event analysis on hybrid systems, where currently only ad hoc approaches are applicable.

Keywords: • rare event simulation • importance splitting • automation of Monte Carlo simulation techniques • formal methods in Computer Science • modelling of stochastic systems • process semantics • Stochastic Automata • GPGPUs for scientific computations • HPC.


Research work

Publications (peer reviewed)


  • Lopuhaä-Zwakenberg et al. (2022). Efficient and Generic Algorithms for Quantitative Attack Tree Analysis. In: IEEE Trans. Dependable Secure Comput. DOI: 10.1109/TDSC.2022.3215752
  • Budde et al. (2022). Analysis of non-Markovian repairable fault trees through rare event simulation. In: Int. J. Softw. Tools Technol. Transfer. DOI: 10.1007/s10009-022-00675-x
  • Verkuil et al. (2022). Automated fault tree learning from continuous-valued sensor data: a case study on domestic heaters. In: Int. J. Progn. Health Manag. DOI:
  • Budde (2022). FIG: The Finite Improbability Generator v1.3. In: ACM SIGMETRICS Perform. Eval. Rev. DOI: 10.1145/3543146.3543160
  • Budde et al. (2020). An efficient statistical model checker for nondeterminism and rare events. In: Int. J. Softw. Tools Technol. Transfer. DOI: 10.1007/s10009-020-00563-2
  • Budde et al. (2019). Automated compositional importance splitting. In: Sci. Comp. Program. DOI: 10.1016/j.scico.2019.01.006
  • Rojo et al. (2013). Enhanced transport through desorption-mediated diffusion. In: Phys. Rev. E . DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevE.87.012115


Workshops, book chapters, etc.


Memberships in societies and scientific committees

Events organisation and chairs

PC member in conferences and workshops

  • FMICS 2020: 25° International Conference on Formal Methods for Industrial Critical Systems
  • QEST 2020: 17° International Conference on Quantitative Evaluation of SysTems
  • GraMSec 2020: 7° International Workshop on Graphical Models for Security

Other contributions to the scientific community

  • Artifact Evaluation committee member of TACAS 2020
Awards and honours
  • Awarded an MSCA Postdoctoral Fellowship (2022)
    • Projection of Security Vulnerabilities caused by Exploits in Dependencies
  • Best short-paper award in QEST 2020
    • Contribution: The Dynamic Fault Tree Rare Event Simulator.
  • Best MSc grade point average of the National University of Córdoba
    • Award year: 2012.
  • Flag bearer of the Faculty of Mathematics, Astronomy, Physics, and Computer Science
    • On ground of holding the best grade point average across the four careers.
    • Award year: 2011.
Conferences and lectures

Outreach & teaching extra-curricula

Participation in scientific events


  • Privacy Symposium 2022
  • QEST 2021: 18° International Conference on Quantitative Evaluation of SysTem
  • CSF 2021: 34° IEEE Computer Security Foundations Symposium
  • ETAPS 2021 (including TACAS 2021): 24° edition of the European Joint Conferences on Theory and Practice of Software
  • QEST 2020: 17° International Conference on Quantitative Evaluation of SysTem
  • ETAPS 2020 (including TACAS 2020): 23° edition of the European Joint Conferences on Theory and Practice of Software
  • PHME 2018: 4° European Conference of the Prognostics and Health Management
  • ETAPS 2018 (including TACAS 2018): 21° edition of the European Joint Conferences on Theory and Practice of Software
  • SETTA 2017: 5° Symposium on Dependable Software Engineering: Theories, Tools and Applications
  • VALUETOOLS 2016: 10° International Conference on Performance Evaluation Methodologies and Tools
  • CONCUR 2015: 26° International Conference on Concurrency Theory
  • QEST 2013: 17° International Conference on Quantitative Evaluation of SysTem
  • CONCUR 2013: 24° International Conference on Concurrency Theory


Other work

Participation in scientific projects

  • CS4E: Cyber Security for Europe
    • Funding: H2020 (EU)
  • SEQUOIA: Smart maintenance optimization via big data & fault tree analysis
  • SUCCESS: SecUre aCCESSibility for the Internet of Things
  • PAMPAS2: Parallel Algorithms for Model-checking and Parameter Synthesis
  • MEALS: Mobility between Europe and Argentina applying Logic to Systems
    • Funding: F7P (EU)
  • Foundations, algorithms and tools for the development of dependable distributed systems
    • Funding: FONCYT—ANPCyT (Argentina)
  • Foundations and techniques for the reliability analysis of concurrent stochastic systems
    • Funding: SeCyT—UNC (Argentina)

Peer-reviewer in journals

Peer-reviewer in conferences

  • TACAS: Intl. Conf. on Tools and Algorithms for the Construction and Analysis of Systems (2020–2021)
  • ICCPS: ACM/IEEE Intl. Conf. on Cyber-Physical Systems (2021)
  • FORMATS: Intl. Conf. on Formal Modeling and Anal. of Timed Systems (2021)
  • QEST: Intl. Conf. on Quantitative Evaluation of SysTems (2018–2021)
  • ESREL|PSAM: European Safety and Reliability Conference | Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference (2019–2020)
  • SETTA: Symposium on Dependable Software Engineering (2019)
  • PHM: Annual Conference of the PHM Society (2018)
  • FORTE: IFIP International Conference on Formal Techniques for Distributed Objects, Components and Systems (2014)

Peer-reviewer in workshops

  • MARS: Workshop on Models for Formal Analysis of Real Systems (2020)
  • GraMSec: Intl. Workshop on Graphical Models for Security (2020)